Phil Davis has come pretty far in his mixed martial arts (MMA) career, but at age 30, the clock is ticking on "Mr. Wonderful" if he wants to progress any further to become the title challenger some thought he might become years ago.
Phil Davis has been fighting in Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) for the majority of his mixed martial arts (MMA) career. His tenure with the promotion began five years ago, and at the start of it, he seemed like a sure-fire future contender. His impressive collegiate wrestling background translated well into the Octagon, and he complemented it with a unique, offensive grappling style, one that has led him to a majority of his career victories.
"Mr. Wonderful" worked hard to develop his game, no doubt, but there reached a point in his career where his game was simply not enough. And it doesn't seem that he's been able to figure out how to progress it to that next level.
From early on in his UFC career, Davis won fights that, retrospectively, seemed all too easy for him. Nonetheless, he was given a fair amount of hype. Victories over Brian Stann, Alexander Gustafsson and Tim Boetsch put him on the map, but looking back, only one of those is really an impressive win, that being Gustafsson, who was still early on in his development at the time of their fight.
The first sign that Davis had serious improvements to make came against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in 2011. Nogueira -- who was still relatively well-respected at the time -- was expected to lose badly to Davis, who seemed to be on a hot streak and looking to fast track himself to title contention. However, Davis failed in the first round to take down Nogueira, and we all got a look at Davis' striking game ... and it wasn't pretty. U
nfortunately for "Lil Nog," Davis was able to change his approach in the next two rounds, utilizing a single-leg takedown as opposed to a double-leg to get the fight to the mat and win the last two rounds of their fight.
At this point, some red flags went off about Davis' game.
In fact, Davis' shortcomings were put on full display in his next fight when he faced Rashad Evans in top form. Evans put on an absolute clinic against Davis in their UFC on FOX 2 main event fight, soundly beating Davis in every area over the course of five dominant rounds. Not only was he outstruck, but Davis failed to grapple effectively, showing that as an overall mixed martial artist, he's just not all that well-rounded.
Fights after this point were odd for Davis, ending up with a "No Contest" and then subsequent rematch win against unheralded Wagner Prado, then followed up by a decision win over Vinny Magalhaes. Neither man was a particularly high-level opponent at the time of the fights, and it was odd matchmaking to see Davis in there with such weak opposition.
Davis was then thrown back into the deep end against Lyoto Machida in the co-main event of UFC 163. Again, Davis' flaws as a martial artist were put on full display, as Machida performed very well, neutralizing Davis' offense and striking with his own. In a bizarre turn of events, however, the judges somehow scored the fight unanimously for Davis, despite next to no effective offense throughout the fight.
Regardless of the performance, a win is a win, and Davis was booked accordingly, placed against Anthony "Rumble" Johnson in his big UFC return as a light heavyweight. Davis talked a lot before the fight, and even took shots at champion Jon Jones, clearly looking past Johnson.
And boy did he pay for it.
"Rumble" put on a Evans-esque beating on Davis, ultimately failing to finish him, but still dominating from bell to bell. Davis again failed to offer anything offensively once he realized his takedowns wouldn't be effective, and the fight seemed all too easy for "Rumble" to control.
Davis followed this awful performance up with a tepid win over Glover Teixeira, winning a decision after three rounds of grounding his opponent repeatedly. It wasn't anything to write home about, but at least it kept him relevant.
The point of all this is that ever since seeing success inside the Octagon, Davis has plateaued and hasn't shown any significant improvement to his game since even his first UFC fight. He's still just a wrestler who can go for some submissions, but he isn't overwhelmingly good at either of those things, at least not against the top flight. He may talk up his striking training, but he still isn't good at it, and oftentimes all his attempts at effective striking lead to him being countered with ease.
I've gone on record before saying that the light heavyweight division is one of the weakest UFC has to offer. And I think Davis has been lucky to have been a part of such a weak division. If a fighter in any of UFC's elite divisions was so limited and so stagnant in their progression, he wouldn't even sniff the Top 15 ... much less the Top five.
And yet Davis has been able to thrive on competition that just isn't that good.
Ryan Bader will give Davis a stiff test this evening and he has a good shot at beating him. Despite being an under dog, Bader has what has historically given Davis trouble -- strong wrestling and some semblance of a striking game. If Davis fails to bring this fight to the mat, there's not a doubt in my mind that -- barring some significant improvement on Davis' part -- Bader will be able to dominate the striking portions of this fight.
This fight comes down to Davis' wrestling up against Bader's. If Bader proves too difficult for Davis to take down, we'll be seeing the "Rumble" fight all over again, which would effectively end Davis' run as a top-ranked fighter in the division.
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